مقاله


کد مقاله : 139805225003681

عنوان مقاله : Plausible Future Scenarios of Cyberspace Content in Iran 2025

نشریه شماره : 29 Winter 2019

مشاهده شده : 446

فایل های مقاله :


نویسندگان

  نام و نام خانوادگی پست الکترونیک مرتبه علمی مدرک تحصیلی مسئول
1 Massoud Kowsari mkousari@ut.ac.ir Assistant Professor PhD
2 Mahdi Montazerghaem mmontazer@ut.ac.ir Associate Professor -
3 Mohammad Mahdi Mowlaei mm@mowlaei.ir - PhD

چکیده مقاله

This article looks at the quality of cyberspace content on the horizon of Iran 2025. We seek to identify upcoming futures which called "scenario" in the futures studies literature. We categorized 15 driving forces with the highest importance and uncertainty, and then four critical uncertainties were identified to construct scenarios: user or technology centric, network status, global power balance of cyberspace and Iranian policy. 36 scenarios were created from the combination of the states of these uncertainties. By using cross-impact balance analysis method and ScenarioWizard software, finally, we identified five scenarios with the highest degree of consistency as more plausible scenarios. These scenarios are named as follows: Whale in the Ocean, Fish in the Aquarium, Dolphin in the Gulf, Turtle in the Pot and Frog in the Pond. Each of these scenarios depicts a different future image of the cyberspace content and the occurrence of each of them depends on our current decisions and actions. Finally, the indicators and sign guides of the scenario were identified so supervising the scenarios and monitoring events will be possible.